“He's back! He's back!... Everybody get up and run!” - Joseph Heller, 'Catch-22'
Yes, The Fabulous Football Pharaoh is back in town. After far too many months away induced by politicised mismanagement of the Covid crisis, multiple UK lockdowns, absent football crowds and general apathy, he has arisen phoenix-like from his writerly tomb again. His interest in English Football remains unabated. But the "Pyramid" he is most interested in today is that offered by FIFA's rankings of UEFA nations. Are England really the 4th best team in the world? Are they even among the four best teams in Europe? We may soon have a clearer view of the answers to those questions. One thing that is reassuringly unchanged here is the rambling nature of The Pharaoh's reflections on The Beautiful Game.
The Pharaoh is always interested in the views of others, though, too. He commands, on pain of death, that you share them in the comments box below. Long or short, all opinions with positive intent are welcomed!
Is "IT" coming home, then?
When you're talking about sport, nothing is for certain. That's one reason why so many people enjoy the thrill of watching it, or of participating. One thing I'm fairly sure about, however, is that Gareth Southgate is winning the persuasive communication battle: for our hearts and minds - and those of his players. He is Liked, Trusted and makes a Logical case, in broadly equal measure. It's a simple but powerful persuasive combination, delivered simply and with clarity. Southgate himself acknowledges this focus: "Our messaging's been really clear".
I got the following football query via WhatsApp after Tuesday's England win, I had a view and shared it. I thought I'd share it with all my loyal subjects, too. Enjoy!
"What did you think of it? Germany just never seemed to turn up."
I've been relatively comfortable with Southgate's approach to the whole tournament so far [and I hear he cares deeply about my endorsement of his tactics and strategy]. I seem to have been in a minority of realists who. remember that tournament football is different. It's an over-used TV pundit cliché, I know, but true nevertheless. I'd have been happier to see more player rotation in the early games, TBH. But that's a minor quibble and they did all turn out to be quite tight games, after all. So I'll let that pass. He gets enough knee-jerk challenges and criticisms from the armchair and (overpaid?) professional pundits without me adding to the noise level.
Are the England side as entertaining as "we" could be? No. Not so far in this tournament. But are we nullifying and deadening dangerous teams, which many others are failing to do? Absolutely! With the arguable exception of Scotland - who, of course, turned out to be not quite dangerous enough against anybody else and have gone home.
People generally seemed unimpressed with England's performances and results prior to Tuesday's last 16 win. I mean people OTHER than the likes of Graeme Souness and Roy Keane, from whom one expects nothing less sour - and dour.
But I struggle to understand that negative perspective from others and I feel it must be down to a failure to understand the true or full context of those performances. The Big Picture. We've beaten Croatia (who were unlucky not to get more against Spain in the last 16, on the tournament's Manic Monday), the Czech Republic (quarter-finalists and looking good). And we drew in the rain, away in our home fixture at Wembley, against a Scotland side seemingly pumped up on endless re-runs of Mel Gibson's woad-painted, wandering-accented warrior chief.
Now we've comprehensively beaten Germany, who had already pummelled Portugal 4 - 2. Albeit they did so, admittedly, with the help of a couple of own-goals. They had qualified as one of the highest-scoring sides in the group stage before we despatched them. And had only narrowly lost their first group stage game, against the pre-tournament favourites and reigning World Champions.
None of our Euro 2020 opponents have managed to score a goal against us yet, although they've all had too many chances, TBH. That's despite the fact that many would have said, before the tournament, our defence was our likely weak spot. And those wins (and draw) have been achieved without a single England goal from a set-piece. Yet!
Meanwhile, the highest scoring side in the Group stage (Holland) have gone home, licking their wounds [FYI, they were my Dark Horse tip for the final, until Matthijs de Ligt's grievous and inexplicable error - and his subsequent red card dismissal].
Early exits also awaited the World Champions (France), their fellow World Cup finalists (Croatia) and the reigning European Champions (Portugal). You see! Sport really is unpredictable. So one could argue that England are already exceeding the achievements of some stellar international competitors. Although you'd hardly know it, from people's largely negative reactions and challenging critiques.
If Germany "just never seemed to turn up" against England (a debatable claim, IMHO) then maybe, to some extent, it's because they weren't allowed to. Only three nations scored more points than England in the group stage, remember. Yet sack-cloth and ashes were the preferred fashion option in TV studios and sports news rooms (and, consequently, around socially-distanced water-coolers) up and down the country, after England's efficient draw with Scotland. It seemed to be widely perceived as not only an unattractive peformance but almost equivalent to a defeat. Whereas, in fact, it was effectively a tense local derby. And, nevertheless, that hard-earned result gained one of England's seven accumulated points, out of a possible nine. Contributing to a Group Win and the luxury of keeping Wembley as our home venue for the face-off with Germany.
Meanwhile, three of the sides who got through the first round stage merely as the best 3rd-placed qualifiers in their groups, have now made it into the final eight. That should tell us a lot about the unpredictable nature of this and other tournament football and the weight of public expectations on some fancied teams. It should also remind us about the often surprising nature of sporting outcomes. One reason why we should all remain "Gambling Aware" at all times, too! Tournament football is, notoriously, a Long Game. A marathon, not a sprint.
Personally, I'm feeling quietly confident about the next round. Just as I was ahead of Tuesday's game. No, honestly! I genuinely fancied us to win.
Attrition! OK, so Southgate's game is to nullify first and attack second. And that comes with its own risks and won't win many new fans, maybe. But he is thinking about his opponents and setting up his stall for each match specifically to deal with them. So far very successfully. He has learned the lessons of 2018, it seems. And of many other years of failure!
The proof of the pudding is mostly in the winning, of course. The manager himself acknowledges he expects to be judged entirely on his results, regardless of what anybody says pre-match about his "surprising" team selections: "If we don't win, I'm dead". Southgate's squad had just better keep on delivering for him, if they want to keep him alive, in return for his continued confidence in them.
We scored as many goals yesterday against the Germans as we had against the previous three opposing sides, highlighting another previous / potential weakness. Southgate's been patient with, and loyal to, some so-called under-performing players. Despite his tournament goals, and all the media hype and hysterics, I'd still put Sterling in that category. Although he's getting back towards his best when going forwards, he's still exhibiting too many errors going backwards - and nearly gifted Germany their equaliser, of course. That hasn't been his only howler, either.
Kane is in that same bracket, although he has continued to occupy defenders tirelessly and made space for others (especially Sterling) to exploit. Fingers crossed Tuesday's second goal will now also relax Kane into sharper performances and more goals. Bad news for the unlucky Calvert-Lewin, perhaps.
Phillips has been a revelation, and looks pretty much undroppable, despite Tuesday's yellow card (which, along with other considerations, probably helps to keep Mount on the bench). Phillips was far more solid, despite roaming forwards more, than Rice - who started nervously. The latter stuck with it though and ran himself into the ground, into cramp, and out of the game, with just a few minutes remaining.
Although I'm not his biggest fan, Pickford looks assured. Walker has surpassed my expectations which, admittedly, were pretty low. His pace has turned out to be important. For instance his critical 50 yard, high-speed chase back to put pressure on Muller at the all-important moment for his all-important miss (which had looked to me like a hopeless task) gets a special mention. Despite it getting very little mention elsewhere. But he offered more than just pace, even occasionally interchanging with Trippier, to give the German wing-backs additional headaches and extra thinking to do. Stones also did his job well, if unspectacularly. The return of Maguire has transformed the way the back unit works. In a good way! The 3 centre-backs yesterday were immense and formed the bedrock of our success. To be even more secure, though, they will need to learn how to enforce a higher defensive line on their team-mates in the latter stages of a match they are trying to see out.
to bust a gut and apply timely pressure.
Oh yes, and that formation change, to 3-4-3. It was described by some pre-match as a risk, having been out of the England mix for some time. But flexibility is a key to success, and Southgate trusts his squad to deliver on his chosen tactics. I thought it could turn out to be a sensible switch (matching the German's own formation) just so long as our wing-backs stayed focused on nullifying theirs. [For those specifically interested in a deeper dive into the evolution of formation selections and tactics, I recommend 'Inverting the Pyramid' (2014) by Jonathan Wilson.]
And for most of the match, our wing-backs weren't really England's star turn, but they weren't supposed to be. What they did do for most of the first 75 minutes was to execute Southgate's game plan by focusing on the job that was being asked of them. Keeping their opposite numbers comparatively quiet and denying much of the likely German supply line. In the second half, Shaw (TBH, my error, I probably would have favoured Chilwell, if the latter hadn't just emerged from isolation) did far more than just that. Was there something in the half-time drinks or manager's team talk, perhaps? Shaw eventually provided the proof of Southgate's slow-cooked pudding. With an assist for our first goal followed up with winning, carrying and threading the ball to start the counter-attack that resulted in England's second. Harry Kane's important first. There's still more to come on the right from the quieter Trippier, I hope.
Southgate's been using some of his more offensive players (esp. Grealish) selectively, and mostly off the bench. To the vociferous disgust of many. But I'm happy with that. I think Grealish is best when fresh and as a change option against tired opposition, anyway. Saka got selected on merit and then got kicked around the pitch by Rüdiger, without much protection from the ref. But he put up with it gamely and just carried on running. He probably also did enough to stay in the starting line-up.
Ukraine are, undoubtedly, one of the two weakest teams still left in the contest's last eight. They only narrowly edged through the last 16 against ten stubborn Swedes and will, surely, harbour hopes of doing the same against eleven "Turnips". They have the capability to match and frustrate us for long periods - and possibly to beat us too. Again, nothing is assured, in sport. But Ukraine SHOULDN'T win, so long as everybody switches on from the start in The Eternal City on Saturday night. We must approach them with care and respect. But that is Southgate's trademark, as they too will surely realise. They will press hard and carry some threat, but I expect us to nullify that threat en route to a win. To be followed by a semi-final against the Czechs (such a repeat fixture would be officially "interesting" - and close!) or Eriksen-less Denmark... surely everybody's second team at this tournament, out of sympathy / solidarity.
The extra incentive for our boys will be the sizeable carrot of a potential home Wembley final. Against Spain or Belgium? Or Italy? Surely NOT Switzerland, though! One things' for sure: we're lucky to be in OUR side of the draw, and NOT theirs.
Is IT coming home, then, Des? Truly, it's impossible to tell. I can only hope so. We'll find out soon enough, though. IT has often knocked on the door only to then run away and hide again. But I quite fancy us this time, for all our many limitations. NOT reaching the final would probably be a disappointment, now. And could still happen, even though we haven't conceded a goal since March. That's six consecutive clean sheets since the last goal against us. Which is something ALL our opponents will be well aware of and worrying about. No matter how different some teams and pundits think and/or wish that statistic woulda, coulda, shoulda been by now. Some might say that our clean sheets have been lucky ones. But it's often said that you make your own luck. And that it can involve a lot of practice and a lot of hard work. And effective, persuasive communication, of course, along the way.
We may think we still have problems. But the England team is visibly growing in confidence. It's WE who are our opponents' problem, too, don't forget. And an increasingly thorny one, at that. The journey away to Rome will be England's first AND last one. I'll be hoping that's not because it's also our last fixture in the tournament. Almost inexplicably, we have now become the (UK) bookies' favourites to lift the trophy, though. Which adds an extra, subtle layer of pressure onto the shoulders of all the players and staff. Just one more chattering monkey to deal with. Tournament football, eh?! As the manager himself says: "in sport, your next challenge is always just around the corner". It never ends.
I've already shared (above) a social media meme posted by TfL staff informally renaming one station "Kane-ary Wharf". That may be premature. Or it may yet prove insufficient. We might end up needing to look for further painful station pun options, for the rest of the squad. In itself, not an easy task. Only the next few days will reveal which is the case.
#Communication #ItsComingHome
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